Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Penarol · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Penarol 2-0 Progreso, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
Penarol 1-1 Progreso
Original prediction
Penarol
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.36 | 67.0% | 71.2% | 4.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.45 | 20.5% | 19.2% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 7.31 | 12.5% | 9.6% | -2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.45 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.2 pts
Projected Score
Penarol 2–0 Progreso
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Penarol
Probability
71.2%
Model confidence
71.2%
Penarol has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PenarolWDWDW
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
ProgresoLWWLL
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
PenarolProgreso
57.3Attack29.0
72.9Defence50.5
68.8Form30.1
67.2Power39.6
1.98xG0.40