Penarolvs
Club Nacional
COMPLETEDUruguay · Primera División · 8/30/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Penarol · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (15%), 2-0 (13%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Penarol 0-1 Club Nacional
Original prediction
Penarol
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.32 | 39.5% | 56.2% | 16.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.03 | 30.2% | 24.4% | -5.8 pts |
| Away | 3.02 | 30.3% | 19.3% | -11.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
16.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–015%
- 2.2–013%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
Penarol
Probability
56.2%
Model confidence
56.2%
Penarol has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 2 · avg 2.60/0.40
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00