Penarolvs
Boston River
COMPLETEDUruguay · Primera División · 9/26/2026, 9:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Penarol · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Penarol 1-0 Boston River, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Penarol 2-1 Boston River
Original prediction
Penarol
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.42 | 63.6% | 65.0% | 1.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.09 | 22.1% | 21.8% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 6.32 | 14.3% | 13.2% | -1.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.42 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.5 pts
Projected Score
Penarol 1–0 Boston River
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Penarol
Probability
65.0%
Model confidence
65.0%
Penarol has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PenarolDWWWD
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Boston RiverWLLWL
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
PenarolBoston River
58.6Attack32.2
72.4Defence54.0
67.8Form34.5
66.9Power42.3
1.86xG0.45