Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Penarol · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Penarol 1-0 Albion FC, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Penarol 3-1 Albion FC
Original prediction
Penarol
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.44 | 63.2% | 57.7% | -5.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.94 | 23.0% | 25.0% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 6.60 | 13.8% | 17.3% | 3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.44 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.5 pts
Projected Score
Penarol 1–0 Albion FC
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Penarol
Probability
57.7%
Model confidence
57.7%
Penarol has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PenarolWDLWD
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Albion FCLWLDL
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
PenarolAlbion FC
56.8Attack43.2
72.8Defence60.5
65.4Form42.0
65.5Power49.9
1.51xG0.61