Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Parma W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Parma W 1-2 Ternana W
Original prediction
Parma W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.93 | 47.0% | 43.8% | -3.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 27.9% | 27.7% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 3.62 | 25.1% | 28.6% | 3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Parma W
Probability
43.8%
Model confidence
43.8%
Parma W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Parma WDLLLL
GF 1 · GA 7 · avg 0.20/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Ternana WLLLLW
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Parma WTernana W
0.0Attack33.3
100.0Defence33.3
33.3Form0.0
45.3Power23.7
1.67xG1.16