Parma Wvs
Fiorentina W
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie A Women · 10/25/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fiorentina W · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Parma W 1-2 Fiorentina W
Original prediction
Fiorentina W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 October 2026 at 12:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.03 | 22.3% | 30.1% | 7.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.42 | 26.3% | 27.4% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 1.75 | 51.4% | 42.5% | -8.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.75 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Fiorentina W
Probability
42.5%
Model confidence
42.5%
Fiorentina W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 8 · avg 0.20/1.60
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40