Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Parma · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Parma 1-1 Monza
Original prediction
Parma
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.64 | 35.9% | 38.3% | 2.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.02 | 31.4% | 28.9% | -2.5 pts |
| Away | 2.90 | 32.7% | 32.8% | 0.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.02 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Parma
Probability
38.3%
Model confidence
38.3%
Parma has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ParmaLLLWL
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40
BTTS 0/5O2.5 0/5
MonzaWLLWD
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
ParmaMonza
0.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence0.0
0.0Form0.0
21.5Power20.5
1.42xG1.21