Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Parma · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Parma 2-1 Genoa
Original prediction
Parma
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.07 | 30.9% | 39.8% | 8.9 pts |
| Draw | 2.99 | 31.8% | 28.7% | -3.1 pts |
| Away | 2.54 | 37.3% | 31.6% | -5.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.07 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Parma
Probability
39.8%
Model confidence
39.8%
Parma has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ParmaLDLLL
GF 2 · GA 8 · avg 0.40/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
GenoaWDLLL
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
ParmaGenoa
16.7Attack16.7
50.0Defence33.3
8.3Form8.3
28.6Power23.6
1.37xG1.01