Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Palmeiras · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Palmeiras 1-0 Sao Paulo, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Palmeiras 2-0 Sao Paulo
Original prediction
Palmeiras
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.66 | 56.7% | 55.8% | -0.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.71 | 25.4% | 26.0% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 5.26 | 17.9% | 18.2% | 0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.66 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.9 pts
Projected Score
Palmeiras 1–0 Sao Paulo
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Palmeiras
Probability
55.8%
Model confidence
55.8%
Palmeiras has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PalmeirasWDDDW
GF 5 · GA 1 · avg 1.00/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Sao PauloLWWLW
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
PalmeirasSao Paulo
57.7Attack41.3
73.1Defence62.7
67.9Form44.0
67.2Power51.1
1.45xG0.58