Palmeirasvs
Corinthians
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie A · 10/11/2026, 8:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Palmeiras · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Palmeiras 1-0 Corinthians, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
Palmeiras 4-1 Corinthians
Original prediction
Palmeiras
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.63 | 57.7% | 61.1% | 3.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.67 | 25.7% | 25.1% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 5.67 | 16.6% | 13.8% | -2.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.63 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.4 pts
Projected Score
Palmeiras 1–0 Corinthians
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
Palmeiras
Probability
61.1%
Model confidence
61.1%
Palmeiras has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PalmeirasWDLWW
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
CorinthiansLLLLD
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
PalmeirasCorinthians
55.2Attack34.5
75.9Defence60.9
69.0Form36.8
67.7Power46.0
1.48xG0.45