Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Palmeiras · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Palmeiras 1-0 Bahia, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Palmeiras 1-0 Bahia
Original prediction
Palmeiras
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 9 September 2026 at 00:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.54 | 60.8% | 58.0% | -2.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.26 | 22.0% | 24.2% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 5.44 | 17.2% | 17.8% | 0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.54 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.8 pts
Projected Score
Palmeiras 1–0 Bahia
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Palmeiras
Probability
58.0%
Model confidence
58.0%
Palmeiras has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PalmeirasDLWWD
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
BahiaLWWWW
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
PalmeirasBahia
56.0Attack51.2
75.0Defence58.3
67.9Form54.8
67.2Power56.8
1.54xG0.69