Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Palermo · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Palermo 3-1 Sampdoria
Original prediction
Palermo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.64 | 57.1% | 49.7% | -7.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.76 | 24.9% | 24.3% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 5.19 | 18.0% | 26.0% | 8.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.64 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Palermo
Probability
49.7%
Model confidence
49.7%
Palermo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PalermoWWWWL
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
SampdoriaLDLWL
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
PalermoSampdoria
52.8Attack45.3
54.5Defence55.6
48.0Form48.7
53.2Power51.9
1.51xG1.13