Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Palermo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (15%), 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Palermo 2-1 Padova
Original prediction
Palermo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.51 | 61.3% | 50.5% | -10.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.11 | 22.5% | 26.7% | 4.1 pts |
| Away | 5.71 | 16.2% | 22.8% | 6.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.51 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–015%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Palermo
Probability
50.5%
Model confidence
50.5%
Palermo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PalermoDWWWW
GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
PadovaWLDWL
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
PalermoPadova
66.7Attack34.2
66.7Defence57.0
66.7Form40.4
68.0Power46.6
1.47xG0.76