Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Palermo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Palermo 1-0 Carrarese, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Palermo 2-1 Carrarese
Original prediction
Palermo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 October 2026 at 12:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.44 | 64.9% | 63.1% | -1.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.60 | 20.3% | 21.9% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 6.29 | 14.8% | 15.0% | 0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.44 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.8 pts
Projected Score
Palermo 1–0 Carrarese
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Palermo
Probability
63.1%
Model confidence
63.1%
Palermo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PalermoWWWDW
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
CarrareseWWLLL
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
PalermoCarrarese
76.2Attack28.6
66.7Defence66.7
90.5Form33.3
80.5Power44.9
1.79xG0.62