Padovavs
Virtus Entella
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie B · 10/17/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Virtus Entella · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 0-1 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Padova 1-2 Virtus Entella
Original prediction
Virtus Entella
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 06:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.43 | 38.3% | 33.3% | -4.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.00 | 31.0% | 29.4% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 3.03 | 30.7% | 37.3% | 6.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.03 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.0–113%
Predicted outcome
Virtus Entella
Probability
37.3%
Model confidence
37.3%
Virtus Entella has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20