Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Padova · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Padova 0-0 Carrarese, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Padova 0-2 Carrarese
Original prediction
Padova
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 17:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.89 | 49.1% | 44.9% | -4.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.37 | 27.6% | 29.1% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 4.01 | 23.2% | 26.1% | 2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.3 pts
Projected Score
Padova 0–0 Carrarese
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Padova
Probability
44.9%
Model confidence
44.9%
Padova has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PadovaLWLDW
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
CarrareseLLLDL
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
PadovaCarrarese
33.3Attack13.3
60.0Defence60.0
46.7Form6.7
49.7Power30.2
1.18xG0.79