Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Padova 0-0 Ascoli, with an exact score probability of 22%.
Prediction record
Final result
Padova 1-0 Ascoli
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.19 | 42.6% | 36.9% | -5.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 28.7% | 31.2% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 3.26 | 28.7% | 31.9% | 3.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.5 pts
Projected Score
Padova 0–0 Ascoli
Exact score probability: 22%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
31.2%
Model confidence
36.9%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PadovaLDWLD
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
AscoliWDWLW
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
PadovaAscoli
34.2Attack33.3
57.0Defence63.2
40.4Form36.0
46.6Power45.9
0.81xG0.78