Os Marialvasvs
Sertanense
COMPLETEDPortugal · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C · 10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Os Marialvas · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Os Marialvas 0-0 Sertanense
Original prediction
Os Marialvas
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.63 | 56.0% | 55.3% | -0.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 26.2% | 25.1% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 5.09 | 17.9% | 19.5% | 1.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.48 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–014%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Os Marialvas
Probability
55.3%
Model confidence
55.3%
Os Marialvas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 2 · avg 2.40/0.40
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60