Oleksandriavs
Yarud Mariupol'
COMPLETEDUkraine · Persha Liga · 9/27/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Oleksandria · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Oleksandria 1-1 Yarud Mariupol'
Original prediction
Oleksandria
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 11:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.63 | 55.4% | 41.4% | -14.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 26.1% | 29.0% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 4.88 | 18.5% | 29.5% | 11.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.46 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Oleksandria
Probability
41.4%
Model confidence
41.4%
Oleksandria has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 2 · avg 0.60/0.40
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00