Oldhamvs
Chesterfield
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 9/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Oldham · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Oldham 1-2 Chesterfield
Original prediction
Oldham
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.10 | 44.2% | 41.3% | -2.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.37 | 27.6% | 29.3% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 3.29 | 28.2% | 29.4% | 1.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Oldham
Probability
41.3%
Model confidence
41.3%
Oldham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
OldhamLDWLW
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
ChesterfieldDDLWL
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
OldhamChesterfield
46.7Attack40.0
66.7Defence53.3
46.7Form33.3
53.3Power45.2
1.46xG0.94