Oldhamvs
Cheltenham
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cheltenham · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Oldham 4-1 Cheltenham
Original prediction
Cheltenham
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.69 | 55.0% | 36.4% | -18.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.84 | 24.2% | 24.5% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 4.45 | 20.8% | 39.1% | 18.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
18.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Cheltenham
Probability
39.1%
Model confidence
39.1%
Cheltenham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80