O Elvasvs
Sertanense
COMPLETEDPortugal · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C · 9/27/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
O Elvas · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 2-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
O Elvas 2-0 Sertanense
Original prediction
O Elvas
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.82 | 49.3% | 48.8% | -0.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.12 | 28.7% | 27.6% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 4.07 | 22.0% | 23.6% | 1.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.82 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–014%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.2–012%
Predicted outcome
O Elvas
Probability
48.8%
Model confidence
48.8%
O Elvas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40