Nottingham Forestvs
Leeds
SCHEDULEDEngland · League Cup · 8/25/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leeds · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Nottingham Forest are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Leeds are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLWDW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Leeds hold a 41.2-point power-rating edge (23.7 v 64.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.6% in the League Cup, while Leeds holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 55% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Leeds
Probability
40.8%
Model confidence
13.6%
Leeds has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00