Nottingham Forestvs
Coventry
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League · 9/19/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nottingham Forest · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nottingham Forest 0-1 Coventry
Original prediction
Nottingham Forest
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.64 | 58.0% | 55.7% | -2.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.96 | 24.1% | 23.9% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 5.32 | 17.9% | 20.3% | 2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.1–111%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Nottingham Forest
Probability
55.7%
Model confidence
55.7%
Nottingham Forest has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40