Nottingham Forestvs
Arsenal
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League · 10/18/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arsenal · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 0-2 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nottingham Forest 0-1 Arsenal
Original prediction
Arsenal
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.51 | 17.2% | 20.9% | 3.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.85 | 24.6% | 25.6% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 1.63 | 58.2% | 53.5% | -4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.63 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–114%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.0–212%
Predicted outcome
Arsenal
Probability
53.5%
Model confidence
53.5%
Arsenal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20