Norwichvs
Southampton
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 10/14/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Southampton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-3 (8%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Norwich 0-1 Southampton
Original prediction
Southampton
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.44 | 38.4% | 28.6% | -9.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.63 | 25.8% | 24.9% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.62 | 35.7% | 46.5% | 10.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.62 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–38%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Southampton
Probability
46.5%
Model confidence
46.5%
Southampton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 16 · avg 1.80/3.20
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00