Norwichvs
Portsmouth
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Norwich · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Norwich 0-1 Portsmouth
Original prediction
Norwich
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.79 | 52.2% | 43.1% | -9.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.73 | 25.1% | 22.6% | -2.5 pts |
| Away | 4.14 | 22.6% | 34.3% | 11.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Norwich
Probability
43.1%
Model confidence
43.1%
Norwich has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 16 · avg 1.40/3.20
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00