Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Norwich · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Norwich 4-1 Burnley
Original prediction
Norwich
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:56 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.23 | 42.0% | 37.3% | -4.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 26.9% | 27.2% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 3.01 | 31.1% | 35.5% | 4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.23 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Norwich
Probability
37.3%
Model confidence
37.3%
Norwich has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NorwichWLLWD
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
BurnleyDLDDL
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
NorwichBurnley
16.7Attack50.0
16.7Defence16.7
0.0Form16.7
16.3Power31.3
1.41xG1.45