Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Burnley · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Norwich are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWDLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Burnley are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (DLDLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Burnley hold a 16.7-point power-rating edge (53.9 v 70.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.0% in the Championship, while Burnley holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 44% BTTS chance and 38% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Burnley
Probability
46.9%
Model confidence
14.0%
Burnley has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00