Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Norwich · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Norwich 3-4 Bolton
Original prediction
Norwich
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.40 | 66.8% | 58.2% | -8.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.93 | 19.1% | 21.1% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 6.64 | 14.1% | 20.7% | 6.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Norwich
Probability
58.2%
Model confidence
58.2%
Norwich has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NorwichLLWWL
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
BoltonWLLLL
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
NorwichBolton
61.9Attack33.3
38.1Defence42.9
42.9Form33.3
48.3Power39.2
2.05xG1.15