Norwichvs
Birmingham
COMPLETEDEngland · Championship · 9/9/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Norwich · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Norwich 2-1 Birmingham
Original prediction
Norwich
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.87 | 50.3% | 40.9% | -9.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.60 | 26.1% | 26.5% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 3.99 | 23.6% | 32.6% | 9.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.87 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Norwich
Probability
40.9%
Model confidence
40.9%
Norwich has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NorwichWLWWL
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
BirminghamDDWLD
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
NorwichBirmingham
53.3Attack46.7
46.7Defence60.0
40.0Form46.7
46.6Power54.5
1.38xG1.32