Northamptonvs
Newport County
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 9/5/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Northampton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Northampton 1-0 Newport County
Original prediction
Northampton
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.74 | 53.3% | 41.0% | -12.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.53 | 26.3% | 28.8% | 2.6 pts |
| Away | 4.54 | 20.4% | 30.1% | 9.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.74 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Northampton
Probability
41.0%
Model confidence
41.0%
Northampton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20
GF 10 · GA 10 · avg 2.00/2.00