Northamptonvs
Crawley Town
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 9/1/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Northampton · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 1-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Northampton 1-1 Crawley Town
Original prediction
Northampton
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.74 | 53.4% | 43.7% | -9.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.70 | 25.1% | 28.2% | 3.1 pts |
| Away | 4.33 | 21.5% | 28.1% | 6.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.70 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.1–013%
Predicted outcome
Northampton
Probability
43.7%
Model confidence
43.7%
Northampton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00