Northamptonvs
Colchester
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 10/24/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Northampton 0-0 Colchester, with an exact score probability of 31%.
Prediction record
Final result
Northampton 2-0 Colchester
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.03 | 45.8% | 38.2% | -7.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.23 | 28.7% | 33.3% | 4.6 pts |
| Away | 3.64 | 25.5% | 28.5% | 3.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.6 pts
Projected Score
Northampton 0–0 Colchester
Exact score probability: 31%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
33.3%
Model confidence
38.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NorthamptonLWDLL
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
ColchesterDDLDD
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
NorthamptonColchester
20.0Attack33.3
73.3Defence57.6
33.3Form36.4
44.5Power45.3
0.70xG0.49