Nõmme United IIvs
Tallinna Kalev
COMPLETEDEstonia · Esiliiga A · 9/10/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tallinna Kalev · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 1-2 (7%), 2-3 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nõmme United II 2-1 Tallinna Kalev
Original prediction
Tallinna Kalev
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.73 | 32.9% | 35.0% | 2.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.10 | 21.9% | 18.7% | -3.2 pts |
| Away | 1.99 | 45.2% | 46.3% | 1.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.1–27%
- 3.2–36%
Predicted outcome
Tallinna Kalev
Probability
46.3%
Model confidence
46.3%
Tallinna Kalev has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80