Nõmme Kalju IIvs
Flora II
COMPLETEDEstonia · Esiliiga A · 9/10/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Flora II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-4 (8%), 1-3 (8%), 1-5 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nõmme Kalju II 1-5 Flora II
Original prediction
Flora II
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.96 | 22.8% | 14.8% | -7.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.62 | 19.5% | 13.7% | -5.8 pts |
| Away | 1.56 | 57.7% | 71.5% | 13.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.56 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–48%
- 2.1–38%
- 3.1–57%
Predicted outcome
Flora II
Probability
71.5%
Model confidence
71.5%
Flora II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80