Nõmme Kalju IIvs
Elva
COMPLETEDEstonia · Esiliiga A · 10/18/2026, 9:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Elva · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nõmme Kalju II 0-0 Elva
Original prediction
Elva
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 20:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.62 | 19.4% | 21.1% | 1.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.59 | 19.5% | 21.8% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 1.46 | 61.1% | 57.0% | -4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.59 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Elva
Probability
57.0%
Model confidence
57.0%
Elva has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Nõmme Kalju IILDLLL
GF 3 · GA 12 · avg 0.60/2.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
ElvaLWDWL
GF 6 · GA 13 · avg 1.20/2.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Nõmme Kalju IIElva
26.4Attack50.5
44.4Defence48.4
27.1Form51.6
34.4Power51.6
0.96xG1.67