Nizhny Novgorodvs
Shinnik Yaroslavl
COMPLETEDRussia · Cup · 10/14/2026, 4:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nizhny Novgorod · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nizhny Novgorod 4-0 Shinnik Yaroslavl
Original prediction
Nizhny Novgorod
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.57 | 57.8% | 42.6% | -15.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.30 | 21.2% | 26.8% | 5.6 pts |
| Away | 4.33 | 21.0% | 30.6% | 9.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.57 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Nizhny Novgorod
Probability
42.6%
Model confidence
42.6%
Nizhny Novgorod has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 18 · GA 3 · avg 3.60/0.60
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.40