Newport Countyvs
York
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
York · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Newport County 1-1 York
Original prediction
York
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.62 | 25.6% | 29.8% | 4.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.61 | 25.7% | 25.4% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 1.91 | 48.6% | 44.8% | -3.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.61 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
York
Probability
44.8%
Model confidence
44.8%
York has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Newport CountyWDDWW
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
YorkDWDLL
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Newport CountyYork
43.3Attack63.0
60.0Defence59.3
43.3Form55.6
50.6Power59.3
1.12xG1.38