Newport Countyvs
Tranmere
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 8/29/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tranmere · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Newport County 2-2 Tranmere
Original prediction
Tranmere
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:56 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.57 | 36.1% | 35.9% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.14 | 29.5% | 27.9% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 2.70 | 34.4% | 36.3% | 1.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.14 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Tranmere
Probability
36.3%
Model confidence
36.3%
Tranmere has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80