Newport Countyvs
Grimsby
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 9/26/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Grimsby · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Newport County 2-1 Grimsby
Original prediction
Grimsby
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.88 | 23.8% | 28.3% | 4.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 26.5% | 28.9% | 2.4 pts |
| Away | 1.86 | 49.7% | 42.8% | -6.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Grimsby
Probability
42.8%
Model confidence
42.8%
Grimsby has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00