Newport Countyvs
Fleetwood Town
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 9/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fleetwood Town · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Newport County 1-1 Fleetwood Town
Original prediction
Fleetwood Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.22 | 28.8% | 31.6% | 2.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 27.0% | 28.9% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 2.10 | 44.2% | 39.5% | -4.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.43 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Fleetwood Town
Probability
39.5%
Model confidence
39.5%
Fleetwood Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60