Newport Countyvs
Colchester
COMPLETEDEngland · League Two · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Newport County · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Newport County 1-0 Colchester
Original prediction
Newport County
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.61 | 35.7% | 37.9% | 2.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 27.1% | 29.3% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 2.50 | 37.3% | 32.8% | -4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.61 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Newport County
Probability
37.9%
Model confidence
37.9%
Newport County has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60