Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Newcastle · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Newcastle 3-2 West Brom
Original prediction
Newcastle
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.36 | 69.5% | 53.8% | -15.7 pts |
| Draw | 5.17 | 18.2% | 24.3% | 6.0 pts |
| Away | 7.68 | 12.3% | 21.9% | 9.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.36 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–011%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Newcastle
Probability
53.8%
Model confidence
53.8%
Newcastle has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NewcastleDDLLW
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
West BromWWWWW
GF 15 · GA 4 · avg 3.00/0.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
NewcastleWest Brom
55.6Attack33.3
88.9Defence33.3
77.8Form0.0
74.7Power23.7
1.91xG0.95