Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Newcastle · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Newcastle are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWLDW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.80 conceded, while West Brom are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 3.40 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Newcastle hold a 51.1-point power-rating edge (74.7 v 23.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.6% in the League Cup, while Newcastle holds the strongest overall chance at 58% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 53% BTTS chance and 54% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Newcastle
Probability
58.2%
Model confidence
11.6%
Newcastle has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
GF 17 · GA 3 · avg 3.40/0.60