Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Newcastle · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Newcastle 2-1 Hull City
Original prediction
Newcastle
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.61 | 59.2% | 39.8% | -19.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.27 | 22.3% | 25.2% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 5.10 | 18.6% | 35.0% | 16.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.61 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-19.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Newcastle
Probability
39.8%
Model confidence
39.8%
Newcastle has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NewcastleLWDWW
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Hull CityDLDWD
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
NewcastleHull City
58.3Attack41.7
33.3Defence83.3
41.7Form66.7
46.0Power66.3
1.32xG1.53