Newcastlevs
Bournemouth
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League · 9/5/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Newcastle · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Newcastle 2-2 Bournemouth
Original prediction
Newcastle
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.11 | 45.0% | 47.1% | 2.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.65 | 26.0% | 26.0% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 3.27 | 29.0% | 26.9% | -2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.65 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Newcastle
Probability
47.1%
Model confidence
47.1%
Newcastle has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
GF 15 · GA 8 · avg 3.00/1.60