Newcastlevs
Aston Villa
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League · 10/17/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Newcastle · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Newcastle 0-1 Aston Villa
Original prediction
Newcastle
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 17 September 2026 at 00:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.33 | 40.6% | 47.3% | 6.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.62 | 26.1% | 23.6% | -2.5 pts |
| Away | 2.85 | 33.2% | 29.0% | -4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Newcastle
Probability
47.3%
Model confidence
47.3%
Newcastle has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
GF 17 · GA 6 · avg 3.40/1.20