New York Red Bullsvs
San Diego
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 10/10/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
San Diego · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
New York Red Bulls 4-1 San Diego
Original prediction
San Diego
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.52 | 37.2% | 33.5% | -3.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.88 | 24.2% | 27.1% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 2.44 | 38.6% | 39.4% | 0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
San Diego
Probability
39.4%
Model confidence
39.4%
San Diego has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.40/1.00
GF 7 · GA 14 · avg 1.40/2.80