New York Red Bullsvs
Philadelphia Union
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 8/29/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Philadelphia Union · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
New York Red Bulls 1-3 Philadelphia Union
Original prediction
Philadelphia Union
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.92 | 32.2% | 39.4% | 7.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.90 | 24.1% | 20.9% | -3.1 pts |
| Away | 2.15 | 43.7% | 39.6% | -4.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.15 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Philadelphia Union
Probability
39.6%
Model confidence
39.6%
Philadelphia Union has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60