New York Red Bullsvs
Philadelphia Union
SCHEDULEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 8/29/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
New York Red Bulls · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
New York Red Bulls are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWLLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Philadelphia Union are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWLWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and New York Red Bulls hold a 4.1-point power-rating edge (45.0 v 40.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 8.3% in the Major League Soccer, while New York Red Bulls holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 74% BTTS chance and 75% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
New York Red Bulls
Probability
45.2%
Model confidence
8.3%
New York Red Bulls has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20