New York City FCvs
Nashville SC
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 9/4/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nashville SC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (11%), 1-1 (11%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
New York City FC 0-0 Nashville SC
Original prediction
Nashville SC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.69 | 34.9% | 20.9% | -14.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 26.9% | 21.7% | -5.2 pts |
| Away | 2.47 | 38.1% | 57.4% | 19.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.49 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
19.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–211%
- 2.1–111%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Nashville SC
Probability
57.4%
Model confidence
57.4%
Nashville SC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 13 · GA 5 · avg 2.60/1.00