New England Revolutionvs
Chicago Fire
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 10/17/2026, 11:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
New England Revolution · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
New England Revolution 1-0 Chicago Fire
Original prediction
New England Revolution
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 17 September 2026 at 00:30 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.38 | 39.6% | 42.8% | 3.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.78 | 25.0% | 22.2% | -2.8 pts |
| Away | 2.66 | 35.4% | 35.0% | -0.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.38 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
New England Revolution
Probability
42.8%
Model confidence
42.8%
New England Revolution has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60